Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.